ADP Signals Bigger Than Expected Jobs Gain In September

While initial jobless claims have been rising recently (dominated by California), analysts still expected ADP to show a pick up in new jobs to 430k (from 374k in August), and it did, smashing expectations with a 568k increase (after August’s print was revised down from +374k to +340k).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest increase since June as we note this is happening as pandemic emergency benefits are removed from Americans.

Jobs rose in every industry and across every size cohort with Services jobs dominating once again…

Good-Producing jobs rose by 102k – the biggest monthly jump since September 2020…

The data come ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report from the Labor Department, which is currently forecast to show the U.S. added 450,000 private payrolls in September.

“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months. “

This all suggests the taper is still on.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/06/2021 – 08:21

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